1. The large plant area formed by current natural accumulation will change in the future. This transformation is driven by two main factors:
(1) Due to industrial restructuring in coastal areas. Shenzhen's Qianhai has a registered capital of 5 billion yuan, and it recently sold a base price of 5.1 billion yuan for a 100,000 square meter plot. Based on the floor price, this is over 10,000 yuan per square meter, yet it remains an undeveloped area.
(2) From an internal perspective, Guangdong enterprise leaders should have broader ambitions and should not just focus on Shenzhen. They must spread their production, distribution, and retail systems across the country. This shift is influenced by both internal and external factors. Since Shenzhen has limited space, the future of manufacturing is likely to move toward the six central provinces.
2. As the manufacturing industry expands nationwide, retail formats will also evolve. Locations that are currently prime in first-, second-, and third-tier cities may no longer be ideal in the future. With urban renewal, transportation challenges, and changing consumer habits, we need to rethink what model works best. A suburban, home-integrated, casual, and experiential shopping model is becoming more relevant. If there’s an area that can radiate up to 300 kilometers and has a concentrated presence of furniture brands, dealers with property ownership—similar to traditional hypermarkets—will play a key role. This model is known as the scientific concept of development. Projects like the Xiao Kaixuan Golden Horse Triumph CBD in Zhengzhou or the Anhui project led by the Shenzhen Furniture Industry Association exemplify this approach. Regardless of how things develop, the furniture industry isn’t a fast-moving consumer good. Offline transactions require experience, distribution, installation, and after-sales service. Such agglomeration needs to follow high-speed rail routes, in densely populated areas with convenient transport and sufficient reach.
3. The future trend is customization. Many dealers report that wardrobes are hard to sell now because they’re being taken by custom-made companies. In the future, can we tap into the decoration or downstream home renovation market? Customization is generally divided into two types: high-end customization, which meets people’s spiritual or material needs, such as brands like Golden Phoenix or Alessandro, and more popular custom options like Sofia Wardrobe or Shangpin Home Delivery. In recent years, custom-made companies have seen strong growth. Soon, listed companies will release mid-term reports. Sofia Wardrobe could grow by 50% or 60%, and Shangpin Home Furnishing is also showing significant growth. As a result, it becomes difficult for dealers and manufacturers to steal these opportunities from others.
4. The trend towards home integration is growing. At today’s exhibitions, the Shenzhen Furniture Industry Association is promoting a model that integrates upstream decorative materials, furniture, and downstream accessories, aiming to maximize benefits within the same space. Can we capture the customization segment, and also grab other parts, including the decoration field? A strong industry derived from Shenzhen is interior design. 80% of hotel decorations are done by Shenzhen-based firms. However, the decoration companies serving these clients often don’t lead the process because furniture products are usually designed by their own designers. If designers and soft services are strong enough, they can take control.
5. The furniture service industry will separate from manufacturing and become an independent sector with strong support for the manufacturing industry. This is inevitable. The success of the Shenzhen Furniture Research and Development Institute is a great example. In the past, the furniture industry was tough, but the R&D institute operated very well and attracted more and more people seeking third-party services. The solid wood furniture design of basic northern manufacturing enterprises is largely completed in Shenzhen, and their communication design system and service system are also mostly provided by Shenzhen. (Editor: Peter)
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