1. The large plant area formed by the current natural accumulation will undergo significant changes in the future. This transformation is driven by two main factors:
(1) Due to the industrial restructuring in coastal regions, particularly in Shenzhen's Qianhai district. Qianhai has a registered capital of 5 billion yuan and recently sold a land parcel for 5.1 billion yuan, covering 100,000 square meters. With such a high floor price—over 10,000 yuan per square meter—it’s still considered an undeveloped area, signaling potential for future development.
(2) From an internal perspective, leaders of Guangdong enterprises should have broader ambitions and not just focus on Shenzhen. They need to spread their production, distribution, and retail systems across the country. This shift is influenced by both internal and external factors. Since Shenzhen is limited in space, the future of manufacturing is likely to move toward the six central provinces.
2. As the manufacturing industry expands nationwide, retail formats will also evolve. The best locations in first-, second-, and third-tier cities may not be as advantageous in the future. With urban renewal, transportation challenges, and changing consumer habits, we must rethink what model works best. A more effective approach could be suburban-based, home-integrated, casual, and experiential shopping. If there is an area that can radiate up to 300 kilometers, with a strong concentration of furniture brands, property-owning dealers—once traditional hypermarkets—can thrive under this model, known as the scientific concept of development. Projects like the Xiao Kaixuan Golden Horse Triumph CBD in Zhengzhou or the Anhui initiative led by the Shenzhen Furniture Industry Association are examples of this trend. No matter how the industry evolves, furniture remains a durable good, requiring experience, distribution, installation, and after-sales service. Such clusters must be located along high-speed rail corridors, in densely populated areas with convenient transport and sufficient reach.
3. The future trend is customization. Many dealers report that wardrobes are no longer being sold as before; they are being taken away by custom-made companies. In the future, can we capture the decoration market or the downstream home renovation sector? Customization mainly falls into two categories: high-end customization, which meets people's spiritual or material needs, such as brands like Golden Phoenix or Alessandro, and more affordable customized options like Sofia Wardrobe or Shangpin Home Delivery. Over recent years, custom-made companies have seen strong growth. Soon, listed companies will release mid-term reports, with some like Sofia Wardrobe potentially growing by 50% or 60%. This makes it increasingly difficult for dealers and factories to compete directly.
4. The trend of home integration is becoming more prominent. At today's exhibitions, the Shenzhen Furniture Industry Association is promoting a model that integrates upstream materials, furniture, and downstream accessories, aiming to maximize benefits within a single space. Can we also take control of other areas, such as the decoration sector? A strong industry derived from Shenzhen is interior design—80% of hotel renovations are done by Shenzhen-based companies. However, these design firms often don't lead the process because furniture products are typically designed by their own designers. If designers and soft services are strong enough, they can take the lead.
5. The furniture service industry will eventually separate from the manufacturing sector and become an independent industry, providing strong support to the manufacturing sector. This is inevitable. The success of the Shenzhen Furniture Research and Development Institute is a clear example. In the past, the furniture industry was challenging, but the R&D institute operated successfully, attracting more clients seeking third-party services. For instance, the solid wood furniture design of many northern manufacturing enterprises is largely handled by Shenzhen, including communication design and service system development. (Editor: Peter)
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