**Abstract**
As the year draws to a close, China's manufacturing sector has shown signs of recovery, supported by a series of favorable national policies. In recent months, the manufacturing index has gradually rebounded, signaling a positive trend in the Chinese economy. Many indicators now suggest that the economic environment is warming up, and there are growing expectations that the country will soon "see the moon after the clouds clear." Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released new survey data, highlighting further progress in the manufacturing sector.
According to the latest data, China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for November stood at 50.06%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from October. This marks a slight but steady improvement over the past three months, indicating that the overall economic operations are stabilizing. However, some analysts remain cautious, noting that the rebound in aggregate demand is still limited, and the strength and sustainability of the recovery remain uncertain.
China's economic recovery appears to be gaining momentum. After hitting a high of 53.3% in April, the PMI had been on a downward trend for five consecutive months, even dipping below the 50% threshold in the third quarter. As a key leading indicator, a PMI above 50 suggests expansion in the manufacturing sector. The recent rise to 50.06% marks the first time in seven months that the index has crossed this critical level. Analysts believe this reflects a modest improvement in manufacturing conditions, as well as the early signs of policy effects taking hold. In particular, increased liquidity from banks has started to flow into the real economy, bringing about positive impacts.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the State Council Development Research Center, noted that while the production index only rose slightly by 0.4 percentage points, the new orders index reached 51.2%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. This indicates improved demand, with both export and domestic orders showing signs of recovery. Additionally, inventory levels have begun to stabilize, suggesting that companies are moving from destocking to restocking, which could lead to higher industrial output in the coming months.
Beyond the PMI data, other economic indicators also show promise. For example, the value added by large-scale industrial enterprises in October grew by 9.6% year-on-year, a 0.4 percentage point increase from September. This was the highest level since June, further reinforcing the idea of a gradual recovery.
However, despite these encouraging signs, the road to full recovery remains long. According to the 11 components of the PMI, only three indices—purchase price, employment, and supplier delivery time—have declined. The rest have seen improvements, though the purchase price index fell significantly to 50.1%, down 4.2 percentage points. Zhang Liqun pointed out that this drop may reflect weak market confidence, and the recovery remains fragile.
Notably, more than half of the 21 industries surveyed have seen their indices rise above 50, indicating broad-based improvement. Large enterprises have played a key role, with their PMI reaching 51.4%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Bai Pengming, a macroeconomic analyst, emphasized that while the PMI has risen, it does not signal a fundamental change in the manufacturing environment or a strong macroeconomic rebound.
Fan Jianping, chief economist at the National Information Center, highlighted that the growth rate of finished goods inventory has dropped to 10.1% in September, still higher than the nominal growth of industrial output. This suggests that inventory levels are not falling, and there is no sign of a downturn.
Despite the progress, Bai Pengming warned that China’s economic recovery is still a long process, and short-term stabilization remains difficult. Some of the recent rebounds are linked to prior stimulus measures rather than genuine economic improvement. The overall economic environment remains challenging, with small and medium-sized enterprises continuing to face difficulties. Key indicators such as industrial electricity consumption have yet to fully recover.
In addition, external uncertainties remain. The U.S. “fiscal cliff†and ongoing global economic risks pose potential threats. As the year ends, while optimism is growing, the path to sustained recovery is still under construction.
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