The Machine Tool Industry Association announced on July 15 that the country's machine tool orders in June were revised up by 143.8% year-on-year, up 0.3% from the previous month.
Observing the monthly order statistics released by the association from December last year to June this year, the reporter found that the growth rate was the highest in February, March and April this year, more than 200% year-on-year, but the growth rate from May to June It began to decline, and the decline in the total number of overseas orders was even more pronounced.
At the same time, according to the latest statistics released by the American Manufacturing Technology Association (AMT) and the American Machine Tool Distributors Association (AMTDA), the total consumption of machine tools and related equipment in the United States from January to May 2010 was US$967 million, an increase from the same period last year. 52.39%. The total consumption in May was 178 million US dollars, down 22.9% from the previous month, but still increased by 58.6% compared with the consumption of 112 million US dollars in the same period last year.
This is in line with the trend of the domestic machine tool market. From January to May, the output value and sales revenue of the machine tool industry exceeded 180 billion yuan, up 41% and 42% respectively, and export and imported machine tools also increased by 38% and 41% respectively.
However, the growth rate of China's CNC machine tool production continued to show a downward trend in June, with a year-on-year growth rate of 45%, which was lower than the 50% level in May. The output growth rate fell for two consecutive months.
The salespersons of the machine tool companies interviewed by the reporters also said that since May, they also felt that the contractual order of intentions has a downward trend, and the amount of effective information is also declining. However, some people have denied opinions on whether the industry is weak. It is believed that March, April and May have been the peak season for machine tool sales, while 6,7 and 8 are relatively low seasons, so it is too early to say that the industry growth slows down or declines.
But it is undeniable that the popularity of the exhibition is a direct reflection of the market demand of the machine tool industry. The sales staff of Lunan Machine Tool Co., Ltd., who participated in many exhibitions this year, told reporters that the popularity of the exhibition can be said to be a bad one, so he felt that the market prospects were not optimistic. It is reported that the company participated in the Nanjing Machine Tool Show in April, the Beijing Machine Tool Show in June and the Shanghai Dongbo Machine Tool Show in July.
According to the reporter's understanding and some statistical data of Japan, Germany and other machine tool associations, the reporter believes that the rapid growth of China's machine tool industry in the first half of 2010 is not sustainable.
This conclusion is partly due to the decline in the rapid growth of the machine tool industry worldwide. On the other hand, from the absolute value of production, China's machine tool output in June reached 20,300 units, higher than the 171,000 units in May, and the monthly output of CNC machine tools reached an all-time high. Therefore, it is difficult to sustain high-speed growth in the case of a large base.
In addition, as the downstream industries such as automobiles and construction machinery are the main driving force for the development of the machine tool industry, since the growth rate of these industries is still very high in 2009, after entering 2010, due to the impact of the base benefits, the growth rate will appear to a certain extent. The decline, but still maintaining positive growth, has led to the continuous expansion of the total number of automobiles and construction machinery, which has played an important role in promoting the continuous improvement of the machine tool industry.
But another data worthy of attention is that the numerical control rate of China's machine tool industry in June was 30%, higher than 26% in May. This shows that the demand for CNC machine tools is increasing rapidly.
Therefore, the reporter believes that in the case of slower growth, similar to the first half of the year, even the general machine tool and economical CNC machine tools are selling well, and the industry's development of such machine tools and industrial structure and product structure adjustment is large. The trend does not match.
And once the market changes, the first thing that will be affected is the ordinary machine tool. In the 2008 financial crisis, a large number of ordinary and economical machine tool inventory was a lesson. Therefore, even if the market is still optimistic, the reporter hopes that enterprises should adhere to the beliefs and pace of product structure adjustment, increase the value of single machine tools, narrow the gap with international advanced machine tool enterprises, and make the machine tool industry as a whole rise to a higher level.
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