High inventory brings pressure on Asian aluminum premium

February 25 news: Although the Chinese government canceled the aluminum export tax rebate, but China's aluminum exports continue to fill up warehouses across Asia. This month, aluminum inventories in South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan increased significantly. This was mainly due to the fact that aluminum demand in the construction, automotive manufacturing, and packaging industries failed to increase significantly after the Lunar New Year, and copper demand in the construction industry also experienced seasonal weakness. In the past month, under the impetus of the fund, LME March aluminum also rose to a high level in 10 years. The high aluminum prices also made consumers slow down their purchases. Officials from South Korea’s LG’s non-ferrous metal procurement department pointed out that aluminum inventories continued to increase in January and February rather than falling as originally expected. Seoul traders pointed out that it is expected that the premium western aluminum premium in the second quarter of this year will fall by US$2 per ton on the basis of the previous quarter. As aluminum producers in China increased aluminum exports before canceling tax rebates on aluminum exports on January 1, aluminum inventories in East Asia increased significantly. Many traders expect China's primary aluminum exports to decline sharply after China abolishes tax rebates on aluminum exports. However, in January 2005, China’s aluminum exports reached 114,930 tons, which is still equivalent to about half of the aluminum exports in December 2004. A Tokyo-based trader pointed out last week that due to the current insufficiency of aluminum inventories plus the supply of aluminum from China, buyers have asked western aluminum producers to reduce the aluminum premium in the second quarter of 2005 to the current level of spot aluminum premiums, and currently Japan's spot aluminum premium CIF price is approximately 80 US dollars per ton. From January to March this year, Japan and South Korea's aluminum premiums were finalized at approximately US$86-87 per tonne. The aluminum premiums concluded by Japanese aluminum buyers and Western aluminum suppliers set a reference standard for aluminum premium in other parts of Asia. It is expected that Japanese aluminum buyers and western aluminum suppliers will start the second quarter of 2005 in the week before March. Aluminum premium negotiations. In Taiwan, the high aluminum inventory has put pressure on the spot aluminum premium, unless excessive aluminum inventory is consumed in March, and the aluminum purchasing activities responsible for future Taiwanese consumers will not warm up quickly. At present, the spot premium for Taiwan's premium Western aluminum is about 85-90 US dollars per ton, which is lower than the level of 95 US dollars per ton at the end of last year. At present, the premium for aluminum from China's mainland is quoted at US$55-60 per ton. However, due to the high inventory of aluminum in Taiwan, Taiwanese dealers’ interest in buying is also low. Moreover, due to the high aluminum inventory, most Taiwanese aluminum buyers have already Canceled the first half of the procurement contract negotiations. In January this year, China exported 58,285 tons of aluminum to South Korea, which was lower than the level of 108,935 tons in December last year. LG expects that at present, the aluminum stocks in Korean ports will be about 120,000 tons, which is higher than the 110,000 tons in January and more than 70% higher than in December 2004. Of these, approximately 5-6 million tons of aluminum are stored in the warehouse of the Korea Public Procurement Bureau, and there are 121,150 tons of LME-registered aluminum stored in Gwangyang and Pusan. Japan Marubeni Corporation pointed out this month that aluminum stocks in Yokohama, Nagoya and Osaka ports in Japan were 320,100 tons by the end of January, which is the highest level since December 1998. Customs data showed that in January, South Korea imported 93,506 tons of unprocessed primary aluminum and aluminum ingots. In 2004, South Korea imported 943,413 tons of aluminum, of which 477,095 were from China, compared with 844,072 tons of aluminum imports in 2003.

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