The final data for 2013 is expected to be released in the middle to late part of this month. Based on current institutional forecasts, macroeconomic indicators are likely to show a "stable" performance for the year. It is widely anticipated that the year-on-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2013 will drop back to around 2.6%, reflecting a gradual decline in inflation. Prices are expected to remain under control, while investment and industrial output growth may slow down slightly, signaling a moderate slowdown in economic activity.
Throughout 2013, the annual CPI increase remained within the government’s target of 3.5%. The highest monthly increases occurred in February and October, both reaching 3.2%. In the fourth quarter, the year-on-year CPI growth rate continued to ease, showing signs of moderation.
Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of Communications, noted that although food prices have seen a slight upward trend since the end of last year, the overall price increases have stabilized. As a result, the CPI growth in December is expected to be around 2.6%, marking a significant drop from the previous month. Similarly, CITIC Securities predicted in its research report that the CPI rose by 0.4% month-over-month in December, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 2.6%.
Alongside the price correction, other key macroeconomic indicators also showed a steady decline at the end of the year. According to leading indicators, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for December was 51%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. However, it remained in the expansion zone for the 15th consecutive month, indicating a gradual but consistent economic slowdown.
Meanwhile, the final reading of HSBC’s China Manufacturing PMI for December remained unchanged at 50.5%, matching its initial estimate. This marks the fifth consecutive month that the index has stayed above the 50-point threshold, suggesting ongoing recovery in the manufacturing sector. Qu Hongbin, Chief Economist for Greater China at HSBC, explained that the slight decline in the final PMI reading was due to slower output growth, but new orders continued to rise steadily, keeping the index above 50% for five months in a row. He added that the recovery momentum that began in August 2013 is expected to carry over into 2014.
According to the forecast from the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, due to higher base effects in the fourth quarter, fixed asset investment for the full year is expected to grow by about 19.8%, slightly lower than the previous month. Industrial output growth in December is also expected to slow down slightly, dropping to around 9.8%. The GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter is projected to be approximately 7.7%, slightly below the previous quarter.
CITIC Securities predicts that both domestic and foreign demand will close the year smoothly, with investment growth remaining stable at 20%. Consumption growth is expected to rebound slightly to around 13.9%, while export growth is likely to fall back to -6.8%. Considering the base effect and stronger-than-historical micro-data in December, industrial output growth is expected to slow slightly to 9.8% for the month.
Xu Shaoshi, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated in a recent report to the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress that the overall economic growth for 2013 reached 7.6%, exceeding the initial target of 7.5%. Additionally, major macro-control targets such as employment, inflation, and international payments were largely met.
As the year draws to a close, the data reflects a mixed picture—moderate growth, controlled inflation, and some signs of slowing momentum, yet still showing resilience in key sectors like manufacturing. The outlook for 2014 remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of continued gradual recovery.
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