**Summary**
The final economic data for 2013 is expected to be released in the middle to late part of this month. Based on current institutional forecasts, macroeconomic indicators are anticipated to show a "stable" trend for the year. It is widely expected that the year-on-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2013 will drop back to around 2.6%, reflecting a steady decline in inflation. Additionally, investment and industrial output growth may slow down slightly, signaling a gradual slowdown in overall economic growth.
Throughout 2013, the annual CPI increase remained within the government's target of 3.5%. The highest monthly increases occurred in February and October, both reaching 3.2%. In the fourth quarter, the year-on-year CPI growth rate gradually declined, showing signs of moderation.
Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of Communications, noted that although food prices have risen slightly since December last year and new price pressures have emerged, the upward trend has stabilized. As a result, the CPI growth in December is likely to be around 2.6%, marking a significant drop from the previous month. Similarly, CITIC Securities predicted that the CPI would rise by 0.4% month-over-month in December, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 2.6%.
At the same time, other key macroeconomic indicators also showed a downward trend toward the end of the year. According to leading indicators, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December fell to 51%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. However, it remained in the expansion zone for the 15th consecutive month, indicating a gradual economic slowdown.
The final HSBC PMI reading for December remained unchanged at 50.5%, matching its initial estimate. This marks the fifth consecutive month that the index has stayed above the 50-point threshold, suggesting continued recovery in the manufacturing sector. Qu Hongbin, Chief Economist for Greater China at HSBC, explained that the slight decline in the final PMI reading was due to slower output growth, but rising new orders helped maintain the index above 50% for five months in a row. He added that the recovery momentum that began in August 2013 is expected to carry over into 2014.
According to the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, due to higher base effects in the fourth quarter, fixed asset investment for the full year is estimated to have grown by about 19.8%, slightly lower than the previous month. Industrial output growth in December is also expected to slow down slightly, falling to around 9.8%. The GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter is projected to be approximately 7.7%, slightly below the previous quarter.
CITIC Securities anticipates that domestic and foreign demand will close out the year smoothly, with investment growth remaining stable at around 20%. Consumption growth is expected to rebound slightly to about 13.9%, while export growth may fall back to -6.8%. Considering base effects and stronger-than-historical micro-data, industrial output is expected to slow down slightly to 9.8% in December.
Xu Shaoshi, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated in a report to the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress last week that the overall economic growth for 2013 is expected to reach 7.6%, exceeding the initial target of 7.5%. Moreover, key macro-control targets such as employment, price stability, and international payments were largely achieved throughout the year.
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