From May 15th to 16th, the 9th China Nuclear Energy International Conference, themed “Renewal of nuclear power: Challenges and Opportunities,†took place in Beijing. Industry experts from both within and outside China gathered to discuss the future of China’s nuclear power market, focusing on technology choices, safety standards, fuel supply, and post-processing. A major topic of discussion was the prospects for the three generations of nuclear power technology, with their maturity, cost-effectiveness, and localization becoming central themes.
The AP1000 reactor is expected to play a significant role in China's nuclear expansion. The recently approved "Mid-term and Long-term Nuclear Power Development Plan (2011–2020)" outlines clear targets for capacity growth, layout, and technological development. By 2020, China aims to have 58 million kW of operational nuclear capacity, with 30 million kW under construction, totaling 88 million kW. As of now, there are 16 operating units with a total installed capacity of 13.66 million kW, while 29 units are under construction, adding up to 31.6 million kW.
According to Xu Yuming, Deputy Secretary-General of the China Nuclear Energy Association, the current operational and under-construction capacity stands at about 45 million kW. The plan includes building an additional 13 million kW between 2013 and 2015, averaging 3-4 units per year, and 30 million kW between 2016 and 2020, or 5-6 units annually. “Given the current trend, it is highly likely that more than 88 million kW will be under construction by 2020.â€
With such rapid development, the next step is determining the technical options for new nuclear projects. At a State Council executive meeting held on October 24, 2012, it was emphasized that nuclear power projects must meet the highest global safety standards and that all new units must comply with third-generation safety requirements.
Xu Yuming also highlighted that during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, coastal areas will be prioritized for nuclear development, while inland projects will require thorough preparation, including water resource distribution, environmental impact assessments, and social risk evaluations. New projects must adhere to world-class standards and meet third-generation safety criteria. “AP1000 will make up a large portion of future projects, possibly over 50%, while other technologies like autonomous third-generation systems will also find room for growth.â€
According to a forecast table, the AP1000 is expected to account for nearly 78% of the 18 planned projects, including the first three inland nuclear plants. Some projects will use foreign technologies such as AES-91 and EPR, along with domestic designs like ACPR1000, ACP1000, and CAP1400.
Currently, several third-generation projects are under construction, including the AP1000 units at Sanmen and Haiyang, as well as the EPR units at Taishan. Sanmen Unit 1 and Haiyang Unit 1 are scheduled to begin grid connection in October and December 2014, respectively.
As these projects move forward, the question remains: how will the AP1000 perform in terms of market selection and mass production? According to Xu Yuming, the success of AP1000 depends on its maturity, economic viability, and localization progress—challenges that China's nuclear sector continues to address.
Experts believe that improved safety standards and better economic performance are essential for third-generation technologies to gain market acceptance and achieve mass production. With successful demonstration projects and ongoing improvements following lessons from Fukushima, AP1000 and EPR are well-positioned for long-term dominance in the global nuclear market.
Financial data shows that the base price for the AP1000 project is around 32.4 billion yuan, with a build-up price of 40.1 billion yuan, translating to a unit cost of 16,000 yuan/kW. This is about 20% higher than the cost of second-generation improved reactors. Industry forecasts suggest that the on-grid electricity price for AP1000 could exceed 0.45 yuan/kWh, which is higher than most currently operating nuclear units.
However, as localization efforts continue, costs are expected to decrease. If the unit cost can be reduced to 13,000 yuan/kW and the on-grid tariff controlled below 0.42 yuan/kWh, the AP1000 could become more competitive. Xu Yuming noted that if this is achieved, the reactor’s safety advantages would become more apparent. If not, economic factors may hinder its development.
In terms of localization, Chinese companies have already mastered AP1000 forging technology and can produce all required components. Most main equipment has also been localized. However, key equipment and raw materials still lag behind international standards. Xu Yuming added that future batch construction will no longer be constrained by equipment shortages.Mining &Tunnelling Cutting Pick
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