**Three Generations of Nuclear Power Gaining Momentum in China**
From May 15th to 16th, the 9th China Nuclear Energy International Conference took place in Beijing with the theme “Renewal of Nuclear Power: Challenges and Opportunities.†Industry professionals from around the world gathered to discuss the future of China’s nuclear energy sector, focusing on technology selection, safety standards, fuel supply, and the development of nuclear power after the restart of regulatory oversight. A major topic of discussion was the potential for the three generations of nuclear power technologies to gain market traction, with their maturity, cost-effectiveness, and localization becoming central points of conversation.
The AP1000 reactor is expected to play a significant role in the coming years. The recently approved “Mid-term and Long-term Nuclear Power Development Plan (2011–2020)†outlined clear goals for the scale, layout, and technical direction of nuclear power in China. By 2020, the country aims to have 58 million kilowatts of operational capacity and 30 million kilowatts under construction, totaling 88 million kilowatts. As of now, China operates 16 units with a total capacity of 13.66 million kilowatts, while 29 more are under construction, adding 31.6 million kilowatts.
According to Xu Yuming, Deputy Secretary-General of the China Nuclear Energy Association, the current total installed capacity under operation and construction is about 45 million kilowatts. The plan calls for an additional 13 million kilowatts of new capacity between 2013 and 2015, averaging 3-4 units per year. From 2016 to 2020, another 30 million kilowatts are planned, or about 5-6 units annually. “Given the current trend, it is highly likely that by 2020, over 88 million kilowatts of nuclear power units will be under construction,†Xu noted.
With the start of Unit 1 at the Ningde Nuclear Power Plant in April, the focus has shifted to how to choose the right technology for the next generation of reactors. The State Council’s executive meeting in October 2012 emphasized that nuclear projects must meet the highest global safety standards, and all new units must comply with third-generation safety requirements.
Xu also highlighted that during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan,†coastal areas will be prioritized for new nuclear projects, while inland development will require thorough preparation, including water resource distribution, environmental impact assessments, and social risk evaluations. “AP1000 will account for a large share of new projects before 2020, possibly exceeding 50%, while other technologies like AES-91, EPR, ACPR1000, ACP1000, and CAP1400 will also have room to grow.â€
In the technical route selection forecast, AP1000 and similar designs were expected to make up nearly 78% of the 18 planned projects, including the first three inland plants. Some projects will use foreign-designed third-generation reactors or domestically developed options.
Currently, several third-generation projects are under construction, such as the Sanmen and Haiyang AP1000 units, and the Taishan EPR plant. Both Sanmen Unit 1 and Haiyang Unit 1 are expected to go online in late 2014.
While these projects are nearing completion, the question remains: what will be the market choice and mass deployment of AP1000?
According to Xu Yuming, the success of AP1000 depends on its technological maturity, economic viability, and localization progress. These factors are critical challenges for China’s nuclear industry as it moves forward.
A representative from China Nuclear Power International noted that the Fukushima accident has reinforced the need for higher safety standards, and third-generation technologies like AP1000 and EPR are well-positioned for mass production. “They have demonstrated success through pilot projects and improved performance in response to lessons learned from Fukushima,†he said.
Data shows that the base price for the AP1000 project is around 32.4 billion yuan, with a total build-up price of 40.1 billion yuan. The unit cost is approximately 16,000 yuan/kW, which is about 20% higher than second-generation improved units. The on-grid electricity price for the AP1000 is expected to exceed 0.45 yuan/kWh, which is higher than most currently operating nuclear units.
However, with further localization, the cost could decrease. If the unit cost drops to 13,000 yuan/kW and the on-grid tariff stays below 0.42 yuan/kWh, the AP1000 would become more competitive. “If this is achieved, the AP1000 will develop faster, and its safety advantage will stand out. If not, economic efficiency will remain a key constraint,†Xu said.
In terms of localization, Chinese companies have already mastered the manufacturing of large forgings required for AP1000 and have localized most major equipment. However, the level of autonomy in producing key components still lags behind international competitors. “In the future, batch construction will no longer be limited by equipment availability,†Xu concluded.
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