Revitalize the equipment manufacturing industry
The development of China's machine tool industry is obviously lagging behind the industries such as automobile and engineering machinery, and the machine tool is the working machine of the equipment manufacturing industry. To revitalize the equipment manufacturing industry in China, it is necessary to revitalize the machine tool industry. Large-scale precision high-speed CNC equipment, numerical control systems and functional components will be the key industries for the equipment manufacturing industry during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period. The world's manufacturing industry, including auto parts and shipbuilding, has shifted to China, and the development of China's aerospace and defense industry has brought development opportunities to China's machine tool industry.
China's world is the largest consumer of machine tools. In 2005, the amount of machine tools consumed was about 10.8 billion US dollars, up 14% year-on-year, accounting for 22% of the world's machine tool consumption. However, developed countries have always restricted the number of CNC machine tools exported to China (especially military). Even high-performance CNC system products such as five-axis linkage are absolutely forbidden to export to China. Therefore, "national machine building" has become a strategic demand for the development of China's manufacturing industry.
Increased demand for medium and high-end and heavy-duty machine tools
The demand for machine tools is related to the fixed assets investment in the manufacturing industry. Since the second half of 2003, the automobile and parts, engineering machinery, power equipment and shipbuilding industries have entered the peak period of capacity expansion. We have counted the general equipment manufacturing industry from 2003 to 2006. The total investment and growth rate of the special equipment manufacturing industry were 44% and 78% in 2004 and 2005, respectively, and the growth rate in the first four months of 2006 was still 59%. In the next five years, fixed assets investment in the five major industries of automobiles, parts and components, defense and military, aerospace, marine and power equipment is expected to maintain high growth, which is also the driving force for the growth of the machine tool industry. From the perspective of machine models, the demand for large and heavy-duty machine tools for ships and defense military will increase. From the product grades, the demand for domestic high-end CNC machine tools and machining centers will increase significantly, and the demand for low-end and ordinary machine tools will increase. Will tend to be stable.
Large gap between domestic and foreign technology
At present, domestic CNC machine tool enterprises are 5-10 years behind in terms of product design level, quality, precision and performance compared with foreign advanced level; the gap in high, fine and sharp technology has reached 10-15 years. At the same time, China's ability in application technology and technology integration is still relatively low, and the research and formulation of relevant technical specifications and standards are relatively lagging. The domestic CNC machine tools have not yet formed a brand effect. China's imported CNC system is basically monopolized by two companies, SIMENS and FANUC. The two companies have a world market share of more than 80%. Under the premise that there is no high-end CNC system replacement for independent intellectual property rights in China, Siemens and FANUC have absolute monopoly advantages.
70% of domestic CNC lathes are single-axis economical CNC lathes controlled by single-board machines. More than 80% of electric machining machines are economical. These two types of CNC machine tools account for more than half of China's CNC machine tools. In 2005, China imported a total of 37,135 CNC machine tools, with an amount of USD 4.471 billion and an average price of USD 120,000 per unit. In contrast, in 2005, the average output value of China's domestic CNC machine bed sheets was only 36,600 US dollars per unit, which was far lower than the price of imported CNC machine tools. In 2005, China exported 6.82 million machine tools, worth 820 million US dollars. On average, each unit sells more than 120 US dollars, the vast majority of which are low value-added ordinary machine tools.
In addition, although the domestic CNC machine tools are close to the precision of foreign CNC machine tools, they still lag behind the advanced level in foreign countries in terms of product reliability and production scale. The average time-to-failure time of foreign CNC systems is more than 10,000 hours. The CNC system developed independently in China is only 3000~5000 hours. The average trouble-free working time of the whole machine is more than 800 hours, and the best products in China are only 300 hours. Although domestically, it can produce high-end machine tools and machining centers such as five-axis CNC machine tools and CNC large-duty machine tools, but the number is less than one thousand and the manufacturing cost is high. The annual output of processing centers in Germany and Japan, where the machine tool manufacturing industry is developed, is more than 10,000 units, which is 20-30 times that of China.
Import substitution space is huge
From 2002 to 2004, China's machine tool industry benefited from the accelerated growth of fixed asset investment, the rapid expansion of production capacity in the automotive industry and construction machinery industry, and the growth rate of sales revenue was 25.51%, 28% and 36%, respectively. The rates were 42%, 48% and 40%, respectively, and the growth rate was faster than the growth of the machine tool industry. In 2005, these two indicators fell to 23% and 15% respectively. The market share of domestic CNC machine tools is relatively low. In 2005, the share of domestic CNC machine tools was only 30.4%. CA {that is, 70% of CNC machine tools still need to be imported. The numerical control rate of domestic machine tools in the past three years is 33 respectively. %, 32.8% and 36.3%, the numerical control rate increase is not obvious.
During the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, the focus of China's CNC machine tool industry is to develop large-scale, precision, high-speed CNC equipment and numerical control systems and functional components, and to change the status quo of large-scale, high-precision CNC machine tools that rely heavily on imports to meet machinery, aerospace, etc. Industrial development needs. Major projects for CNC product development include: key development of key functional components and CNC systems; high-speed, precision CNC lathes; turning centering machines and multi-axis combined machining machines; high-speed, high-precision CNC milling and boring machines; Machining center; heavy duty, super heavy duty CNC machine tools and CNC grinding machines. By the end of the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€, the proportion of domestic CNC machine tools in the domestic demand market will increase from the current 30% to more than 50%. The domestic CNC machine tools will use more than 60% of their own functional components, and the CNC system with independent intellectual property rights will account for more than 60%. More than 75% of the total output of CNC machine tools.
Stable growth in the next five years
We expect the machine tool industry to maintain a steady growth rate of 15% in the next five years. Among them, due to the numerical control ratio of domestic machine tools and the increase of domestic market share, the growth rate of CNC machine tools will be around 30%; the import substitution effect of mid-range CNC machine tools will appear year after year; high-end CNC machine tool technology is difficult to catch up with Germany and Japan. Some high-end markets are difficult to shake; China's medium and high-end CNC machine tools are technically close to similar foreign products, and the price advantage is obvious. The proportion of machine tool exports will also increase year by year.
The development of China's machine tool industry is obviously lagging behind the industries such as automobile and engineering machinery, and the machine tool is the working machine of the equipment manufacturing industry. To revitalize the equipment manufacturing industry in China, it is necessary to revitalize the machine tool industry. Large-scale precision high-speed CNC equipment, numerical control systems and functional components will be the key industries for the equipment manufacturing industry during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period. The world's manufacturing industry, including auto parts and shipbuilding, has shifted to China, and the development of China's aerospace and defense industry has brought development opportunities to China's machine tool industry.
China's world is the largest consumer of machine tools. In 2005, the amount of machine tools consumed was about 10.8 billion US dollars, up 14% year-on-year, accounting for 22% of the world's machine tool consumption. However, developed countries have always restricted the number of CNC machine tools exported to China (especially military). Even high-performance CNC system products such as five-axis linkage are absolutely forbidden to export to China. Therefore, "national machine building" has become a strategic demand for the development of China's manufacturing industry.
Increased demand for medium and high-end and heavy-duty machine tools
The demand for machine tools is related to the fixed assets investment in the manufacturing industry. Since the second half of 2003, the automobile and parts, engineering machinery, power equipment and shipbuilding industries have entered the peak period of capacity expansion. We have counted the general equipment manufacturing industry from 2003 to 2006. The total investment and growth rate of the special equipment manufacturing industry were 44% and 78% in 2004 and 2005, respectively, and the growth rate in the first four months of 2006 was still 59%. In the next five years, fixed assets investment in the five major industries of automobiles, parts and components, defense and military, aerospace, marine and power equipment is expected to maintain high growth, which is also the driving force for the growth of the machine tool industry. From the perspective of machine models, the demand for large and heavy-duty machine tools for ships and defense military will increase. From the product grades, the demand for domestic high-end CNC machine tools and machining centers will increase significantly, and the demand for low-end and ordinary machine tools will increase. Will tend to be stable.
Large gap between domestic and foreign technology
At present, domestic CNC machine tool enterprises are 5-10 years behind in terms of product design level, quality, precision and performance compared with foreign advanced level; the gap in high, fine and sharp technology has reached 10-15 years. At the same time, China's ability in application technology and technology integration is still relatively low, and the research and formulation of relevant technical specifications and standards are relatively lagging. The domestic CNC machine tools have not yet formed a brand effect. China's imported CNC system is basically monopolized by two companies, SIMENS and FANUC. The two companies have a world market share of more than 80%. Under the premise that there is no high-end CNC system replacement for independent intellectual property rights in China, Siemens and FANUC have absolute monopoly advantages.
70% of domestic CNC lathes are single-axis economical CNC lathes controlled by single-board machines. More than 80% of electric machining machines are economical. These two types of CNC machine tools account for more than half of China's CNC machine tools. In 2005, China imported a total of 37,135 CNC machine tools, with an amount of USD 4.471 billion and an average price of USD 120,000 per unit. In contrast, in 2005, the average output value of China's domestic CNC machine bed sheets was only 36,600 US dollars per unit, which was far lower than the price of imported CNC machine tools. In 2005, China exported 6.82 million machine tools, worth 820 million US dollars. On average, each unit sells more than 120 US dollars, the vast majority of which are low value-added ordinary machine tools.
In addition, although the domestic CNC machine tools are close to the precision of foreign CNC machine tools, they still lag behind the advanced level in foreign countries in terms of product reliability and production scale. The average time-to-failure time of foreign CNC systems is more than 10,000 hours. The CNC system developed independently in China is only 3000~5000 hours. The average trouble-free working time of the whole machine is more than 800 hours, and the best products in China are only 300 hours. Although domestically, it can produce high-end machine tools and machining centers such as five-axis CNC machine tools and CNC large-duty machine tools, but the number is less than one thousand and the manufacturing cost is high. The annual output of processing centers in Germany and Japan, where the machine tool manufacturing industry is developed, is more than 10,000 units, which is 20-30 times that of China.
Import substitution space is huge
From 2002 to 2004, China's machine tool industry benefited from the accelerated growth of fixed asset investment, the rapid expansion of production capacity in the automotive industry and construction machinery industry, and the growth rate of sales revenue was 25.51%, 28% and 36%, respectively. The rates were 42%, 48% and 40%, respectively, and the growth rate was faster than the growth of the machine tool industry. In 2005, these two indicators fell to 23% and 15% respectively. The market share of domestic CNC machine tools is relatively low. In 2005, the share of domestic CNC machine tools was only 30.4%. CA {that is, 70% of CNC machine tools still need to be imported. The numerical control rate of domestic machine tools in the past three years is 33 respectively. %, 32.8% and 36.3%, the numerical control rate increase is not obvious.
During the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, the focus of China's CNC machine tool industry is to develop large-scale, precision, high-speed CNC equipment and numerical control systems and functional components, and to change the status quo of large-scale, high-precision CNC machine tools that rely heavily on imports to meet machinery, aerospace, etc. Industrial development needs. Major projects for CNC product development include: key development of key functional components and CNC systems; high-speed, precision CNC lathes; turning centering machines and multi-axis combined machining machines; high-speed, high-precision CNC milling and boring machines; Machining center; heavy duty, super heavy duty CNC machine tools and CNC grinding machines. By the end of the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€, the proportion of domestic CNC machine tools in the domestic demand market will increase from the current 30% to more than 50%. The domestic CNC machine tools will use more than 60% of their own functional components, and the CNC system with independent intellectual property rights will account for more than 60%. More than 75% of the total output of CNC machine tools.
Stable growth in the next five years
We expect the machine tool industry to maintain a steady growth rate of 15% in the next five years. Among them, due to the numerical control ratio of domestic machine tools and the increase of domestic market share, the growth rate of CNC machine tools will be around 30%; the import substitution effect of mid-range CNC machine tools will appear year after year; high-end CNC machine tool technology is difficult to catch up with Germany and Japan. Some high-end markets are difficult to shake; China's medium and high-end CNC machine tools are technically close to similar foreign products, and the price advantage is obvious. The proportion of machine tool exports will also increase year by year.
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