**Abstract**
Experts noted that while the stock market has seen a rise due to reform-driven positive effects that exceeded expectations, the metal market remains short-sighted and distant from such optimism. The annual China Nonferrous Metals Industry Meeting took place in Shanghai yesterday, where industry experts highlighted that over-supply has become a widespread issue across the non-ferrous metals sector.
The meeting emphasized that despite some short-term gains, the long-term outlook for the sector is challenging. One aluminum trader expressed concern, stating, “Supply is significantly exceeding demand, and costs are declining, which means the industry will face even colder conditions next year.†Both futures and spot markets show weak trends for key non-ferrous metals like copper, aluminum, and nickel.
On November 18, the LME copper 03 contract closed at $7,000 per ton, but by the following day, three-month copper dropped to $6,693 per ton, marking a 0.67% decline. This drop reinforced a bearish sentiment in the market. Fubao Information’s Lelianhua predicts that copper prices will enter a prolonged bear market, with oversupply likely to pressure prices for at least the next three years.
Nickel has been the worst-performing base metal this year, with prices falling steadily. Since November, nickel has lost 6.83%, and it fell another 1.44% overnight. The Indonesian government's planned ban on nickel ore exports next year has introduced uncertainty into the market. While the impact may be less than expected, it is unlikely to provide significant support to nickel prices. Analysts expect the metal to remain in a bear market for the medium to long term due to supply concerns and slowing demand growth.
Over-supply is a major challenge across the entire non-ferrous metals industry. According to a report from London on November 18, the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) revealed that the global zinc market recorded a surplus of 38,000 tons between January and September 2013.
In China, refined copper production in October reached 637,900 tons, surpassing the previous record of 620,000 tons set in September. Copper output also increased by 22.9% compared to October 2012.
As a leading non-ferrous metal, copper faces an uncertain future. Jiangxi Copper recently negotiated its 2014 copper processing fee, which rose by 31% compared to the previous year. Industry insiders note that Jiangxi Copper’s processing fees often serve as a benchmark. With China being the world’s largest copper processor, higher processing fees signal increased smelting activity and potentially more copper supply. In 2014, the copper industry faces significant price pressures.
Copper concentrate processing fees refer to the cost of refining crude copper into anode copper, while refining fees cover the process of converting anode copper into electrolytic copper. An increase in these fees suggests that mine capacity is growing faster than smelting capacity, leading to higher copper production. According to Jim Lennon, a senior commodities consultant at Macquarie Bank, global copper supply has surged since 2012 and is expected to peak at over 477,000 tons in 2014. He is particularly pessimistic about the mid-term copper price trend, predicting that prices will continue to decline from their 2011 levels, with a potential bottom around $6,500 per ton.
Investors are still assessing whether China’s economic reform plans will lead to a short-term boost in demand for base metals. Under the new policy, the Chinese government aims to open up the financial sector and relax investment restrictions. It also plans to introduce a more market-oriented IPO system. Although the stock market has risen due to stronger-than-expected reform outcomes, Michael Turek, head of trading at Newedge Metals, believes that while China’s marketization is progressing, it is still too far off for the short-sighted metal market.
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