Abstract The latest statistics show that in the third quarter of this year, China's polysilicon prices showed a moderate upward trend. At the beginning of July, China's spot price of polysilicon before the introduction of the anti-dumping preliminary ruling of the United States and South Korea was 10.5~135,000 yuan/ton, and the average price was maintained at 1.2227 million yuan/ton. July...
The latest statistics show that in the third quarter of this year, China's polysilicon prices showed a moderate upward trend. At the beginning of July, China's spot price of polysilicon before the introduction of the anti-dumping preliminary ruling of the United States and South Korea was 10.5~135,000 yuan/ton, and the average price was maintained at 1.2227 million yuan/ton. On July 18, after the Ministry of Commerce adopted temporary anti-dumping measures against solar-grade polysilicon produced in the United States and South Korea, the price of polysilicon rose slightly to 134,000 yuan/ton at the end of September, an increase of 9.2%. Polysilicon industry faces integration
With the advancement of the EU's "double-reverse" ruling, some domestic polysilicon enterprises have been greatly encouraged and have resumed production. It is understood that Luoyang Zhongsi achieved full resumption of production on August 18; Yichang CSG polysilicon plant officially drove on August 4 after 11 months of parking maintenance, upgrade and transformation; Shaanxi Tianhong also in September Resumption of production and driving.
In addition to the newly re-established enterprises, some polysilicon enterprises increased production in the third quarter. In the third quarter, China's polysilicon production was about 21,000 tons, an increase of 14.3% from the previous quarter's 18,000 tons, of which Jiangsu Zhongneng's output accounted for 63% of total domestic production.
It is understood that although there are currently about ten polysilicon enterprises in China that have been affected by the anti-dumping preliminary ruling factors of the United States and South Korea, they have resumed production, but they are all at a loss. “The first- and second-line polysilicon enterprises choose to resume work at this time, on the one hand, considering that the market may improve in the future; on the other hand, they hope to seize a place in this round of industry integration.†Researcher of Silicon Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association In an interview with reporters, Liu Jing said that the resumption of production enterprises hopes to have an impact on the current predicament through their own active efforts.
At the same time, Liu Jing pointed out that some small-scale polysilicon enterprises are unlikely to survive in the future. "At present, the polysilicon industry is still being suppressed by foreign dumping, and there is no need for favorable factors to stimulate recovery."
Enterprises actively strive for export quotas
According to customs statistics, China's polysilicon imports in August this year were 5,330 tons, a decrease of 22.5% from the previous month. After experiencing surprise imports in July, imports in August returned to the level of dumping from May to June. At the same time, the average price of China's polysilicon imports in August fell slightly to 18.75 yuan / kg, down 6.2% from the previous month, down 22.6%. In August, the general trade mode imported 1157 tons of polysilicon, accounting for only 21.7%; the processing trade imported 4173 tons, accounting for 78.3%.
On August 6, the “price commitment†agreement for the Sino-European PV trade dispute that has received much attention has been officially implemented. The total annual export volume of China's PV products exported to Europe must not exceed 7 GW.
Liu Jing pointed out that some of the originally planned PV power plant projects were also cancelled midway because some customers were not willing to accept the lowest price of 0.56 Euro/Watt. As a result, the number of PV products currently exported to Europe has fallen sharply, and the decline has been heavy. Some companies are considering local component processing in Europe to reduce some of the freight, while avoiding the minimum price of 0.56 euros/watt, but the profit will drop accordingly. Another part of the company may adopt a price strategy, that is, the customs declaration is still 0.56 euros, the actual transaction price is lower than the minimum price, or the acquisition of a low-cost component factory in Europe or close to Europe to obtain greater cost competitiveness.
China's PV market is too dependent on foreign markets, and the domestic PV market has not yet started on a large scale. With the sharp decline in sales of PV exports in the European market, all PV companies are actively seeking countermeasures and are actively pursuing quotas for export to Europe. After the first round of PV quota allocation to Europe, the second round of distribution will be released in the near future. The remaining 10% of quota allocation is still under intense discussion. “Because some of them are components, silicon wafers are exported, others are building power stations in Europe or as investment parties in power plants. If any of the major PV companies have no export quota, they will have a chain reaction, resulting in a chain reaction. Its business is not working properly."
Basic balance of supply and demand in the third quarter
It is understood that the domestic polysilicon production in the third quarter was 21,000 tons, and the estimated amount of imported polysilicon was about 18,000 tons, with a total supply of 39,000 tons. In the third quarter, the output of crystalline silicon cells was about 6.5 GW, and the consumption of polysilicon was about 39,000 tons. Therefore, the supply and demand of polysilicon in the third quarter was basically balanced. Affected by the EU's "double-reverse" on China's PV products, demand in the European market will slow down, while demand in the Chinese market and the Asia-Pacific market will show a growth trend, and demand will gradually shift from the European market. However, the establishment of photovoltaic market outside Europe needs time to accumulate, so the demand for PV market in the fourth quarter has not increased much.
Liu Jing said that the anti-dumping preliminary ruling on the US and South Korea's polysilicon shows the country's determination to maintain the internationally competitive polysilicon industry, but the preliminary ruling is far from enough, and the follow-up "double-reverse" final ruling is still heavy. And the road is far.
"To clarify the international strategic position of the polysilicon industry, the domestic cost has reached the international advanced level, so it is impossible to blindly follow the foreign polysilicon production technology. At the same time, the state should support the establishment of a research platform to solve the common technology, key processes and equipment upgrades in the industry." Silicon Industry Branch In its quarterly report, it also pointed out that major enterprises should strengthen cooperation and help each other, and work together in the process of exploring the cost reduction of polysilicon production technology to lay a solid foundation for the future development of polysilicon. "Domestic standards should be consistent with international standards, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the polysilicon industry. Enterprises intending to enter the polysilicon industry need to be carefully considered, comprehensive research, and can not blindly invest. Enterprises and related industries need to warm up, and the upstream and downstream must work together. Consolidate all the forces that can be condensed, establish a close and long-term cooperative relationship, and make its due contribution to the future development of the industry."
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