The spot price of polysilicon is rising again, not benefiting from the company or benefiting

The reporter reported on August 28 that the recent rise in polysilicon prices in the past two years. At the time, the reporter learned from various interviews that the industry believes that this trend of price increase will continue at least until the end of this year.

On September 8th, the industry reported that many domestic polysilicon manufacturers updated their solar-grade raw polysilicon prices on the morning of the same day. The latest price is between 490,000 yuan/ton and 550,000 yuan/ton. This price has risen by 10% compared with when the reporters wrote the manuscript on August 28th. Affected by it, yesterday (September 8) Leshan Power's heavy volume limit.

Polysilicon prices rose another 10% in half a month

Yesterday, the photovoltaic industry portal Solarbe released news that at 11 o'clock in the morning, most domestic polysilicon manufacturers updated their solar-grade raw polysilicon prices in Solarbe Photovoltaic Information Center, the highest price reached 550,000 yuan / ton, the lowest reached 490,000 yuan /Ton. Compared with a month ago, the monthly increase was 25%.

The reporters asked the industry for evidence. Antaike analyst Xie Chen told reporters after asking the manufacturer that the latest mainstream quotation of domestic polysilicon plants is indeed at this level. Antaike is a market research company directly affiliated to the Institute of Nonferrous Metals Technology and Economics. It is one of the authoritative research institutions in the domestic nonferrous metal industry.

The spot market price of polysilicon, which has fluctuated for a long time at 400,000 yuan/ton, has broken the stalemate in the past two years since the end of July this year, and it has rebounded for the first time after the financial crisis. By mid-August, the spot price of polysilicon in the domestic market has risen from 400,000 yuan to 415,000 yuan per ton to 440,000 yuan to 460,000 yuan, a month-on-month increase of about 10%.

Since then, the spot price of polysilicon continued to rise rapidly. In an interview with reporters on August 27, Xie Chen said that the domestic spot price has exceeded 500,000 yuan/ton in the week, and the mainstream price is 485,000 yuan/ton~505,000 yuan/ton. The half-month increase is still around 10%.

It is worth noting that on September 8th, Solarbe also said that the polysilicon price continued to rise, but most of the domestic polysilicon plants did not follow up the price increase. With the expansion of the component factory and the full supply of orders, the supply of imported raw materials is in short supply, and the domestic raw material plant has finally raised the offer.

According to customs data, China's polysilicon imports in 3,682 tons in July, an increase of 34.1% over the same period last year; compared with 3,784 tons in June, the PV market is still hot, and the demand for raw materials in domestic component factories is still at a high level. According to a single month, in the first five months of this year, except for February, which was 26.47 million tons, the remaining four months of imports were around 3,200 tons. In the first seven months, China imported 23,000 tons of polysilicon, exceeding the level of last year.

Expected gains to last until the end of the year
This round of price increases is due to the rapid recovery of the global photovoltaic industry since the end of last year, from the terminal battery components to the upstream raw materials. The largest PV market, which accounts for half of the world's demand, has been continually increased by the continuous reduction of subsidies in Germany.

Xie Chen told reporters on September 8 that the spot price of polysilicon continued to rise. In addition to the increase in demand, it was also related to the recent actions of the company. In addition to GCL-Poly, there are not many single-production polysilicon in domestic large factories, and many first-line component plants have their own polysilicon production lines. The demand for downstream components continued to be strong, allowing these companies to adjust the product supply structure. The polysilicon produced was mostly tilted toward their own use, resulting in a decrease in the number of loose orders that flowed into the spot market, and the supply was further tightened.

Therefore, the spot price does not fully reflect the actual supply and demand of the industry. In fact, most of the mainstream polysilicon plant supply contracts are mainly long orders, although the long single contract price is also floating, but its price increase is far less powerful than the spot.

Everbright Securities and Xiangcai Securities expect that the rise of polysilicon will be maintained until the end of this year. Xie Chen also holds the same judgment. He told reporters that the root cause of the price increase was due to the successive reduction of subsidies by major PV installers in Europe. From the domestic production of polysilicon to photovoltaic systems installed in Europe, this process will take about 1 to 2 months. Therefore, before the German subsidy is lowered again in January next year, the domestic polysilicon surge may be maintained until November, and it will enter a relatively stable state after November.

Industry research organizations agree that PV demand will weaken in the first half of next year, and polysilicon prices will fall back at that time. In the secondary market, Leshan Power has a daily limit on the 8th, but some researchers said that most of the polysilicon products of Leshan Power and Sichuan Investment Energy Co., Ltd. are preferentially supplied to the component factories of Tianwei Baobian, so the soaring spot prices have little effect on them. The benefits are those that are not self-contained and that have flowed into the spot market, such as CSG A and Jiangsu Sunshine.

In addition, on the evening of September 8, Xie Chen told reporters that the latest domestic polysilicon offer has been widely mentioned 500,000 yuan / ton, the highest offer has reached 580,000 yuan / ton.

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